BBC Preview: Oh, those heavenly Angels

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 8 Fantasy Forecaster!

I hesitate to use the word "hate," because hate is a pretty strong emotion. So let's just say I'm not particularly fond of the Minnesota Twins.

My readers might remember my Baseball Challenge pitching-staff choice of a week ago: It was the Chicago White Sox, who had a seven-game (six at home) schedule, and surprisingly good-at-home statistics. Three at "The Cell" versus the Twins, followed by three more there against the Pittsburgh Pirates? Yes, please.

So what do the Twins do to the Sox's pitching staff on Wednesday? They score 20 runs on 20 hits, including four home runs. They didn't just light up the Chicago staff like a Christmas tree, but it was as if they were "Cousin Eddie," emptying their chemical toilet on to it before lighting a match. (Nothing like Christmas-movie references in May.)

Just to put the carnage in perspective, the Twins as a team had averaged 4.8 runs, 9.3 hits and 1.0 home runs per game in their first 40 contests. And it's not like a 20-run game is a common occurrence; Thursday's game marked only the 100th time it has happened since 1954. That means in the past 55 years, it has happened roughly 1.8 times out of the thousands of baseball games that are played each season. Hey, you know what they say: That's why they play the games, right? I guess it wouldn't be as fun if some picks didn't totally turn sour.

Tristan's top three pitching staff values

1. Los Angeles Angels (CHW-3, SEA-3 -- two-start pitcher Ervin Santana), 6.7 price tag: Maybe this draws back to my extensive knowledge of Mr. Santana (he's on more than one of my sim teams, something that forces you to look closer at a pitchers' statistical splits), but the guy has historically dominated in home games. He's 30-14 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 59 career starts at Angel Stadium, compared to 21-23 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 58 career road games (56 starts), and while the margins between those splits narrowed in his breakout 2008, Santana's two-start Week 8 still must be considered advantageous. More stats in his favor: He's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in nine starts versus the Mariners since 2007. But this isn't just about Santana; the Angels have picked up the pace of late, winning eight of their past 12 games while turning in a 3.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. It sure helps that they have Santana and John Lackey healthy.

2. Milwaukee Brewers (STL-3, CIN-3 -- two-start pitcher Yovani Gallardo), 5.9: Another case of home dominance and grabbing the team in the midst of a hot streak, the Brewers have won 22 of their past 28 games and registered a 3.19 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in doing so, totaling 499 BBC points during that span (17.8 per game). But having Gallardo, who has generated 101 points alone in this scoring system in his eight starts (12.6 per turn), pitching twice just makes this team all the more attractive.

3. Arizona Diamondbacks (SD-3, ATL-4 -- two-start pitchers Doug Davis and Max Scherzer), 5.6: As you can read in my Forecaster, I like the individual matchups for Diamondbacks pitchers despite their working all week at Chase Field, which is traditionally a hitter-friendly ballpark. But San Diego and Atlanta posed little threat to this staff in previous matchups this season, and the only weak link in the Diamondbacks' rotation right now is the No. 5 hole, currently occupied by Billy Buckner (not to be confused with the former Red Sox first baseman). Buckner works Wednesday against the Padres, so he's buried nicely in the rotation in a spot where he shouldn't be much of a liability.

Sleeper alert: Houston Astros (@CIN-3, @PIT-3 -- two-start pitcher Wandy Rodriguez), 5.2. Picking pitching staffs slated to face the Pirates, especially in pitcher-friendly PNC Park, is an easy one. But what's important to note about Houston's three-game series in Cincinnati is that Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt are scheduled to pitch on Monday and Tuesday, which provides the Astros the advantage. Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in five career starts at Great American Ball Park, while Oswalt is 23-1 in his career versus the Reds, and 7-1 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in nine career starts at Great American. Need I say more?

Smack talk!

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me. And don't be afraid to bust my chops. I can take it.

Damasio of Brazil writes: "What's your excuse now? Did you forget to hit the 'save' button again? After putting together your own lineup? Not that I particularly care, since I'm kicking your ass ever since people started swinging bats in games this year.

You must be referring to my last-minute swap of Josh Hamilton for B.J. Upton, Damasio, which I did post as an update late last Sunday after Hamilton suffered a groin injury in that afternoon's game. Turns out it was the right move; Hamilton had made only a pinch-hitting appearance through the first four days of Week 7. As a note to my readers, be sure to check back throughout the weekend, as in the event this kind of thing happens again I'll keep my lineup changes updated in the column as I did last week.

Generally speaking, though, I'll never make a lineup change unless I'm legitimately concerned that a player I picked is going to miss time due to injury.

Donald Morgese of Northport, N.Y., writes: "Alright, here's the deal. I tied with you last week with 331 points, largely because our lineups were substantially similar. Not so this week. You're taking the White Sox? I'm taking your New York Yankees. The only players we share are Han-Ram and V-Mart. Know that every time you hear Michael Kay say, 'It's an A-Bomb, from A-Rod!' I'm coming six points closer. Left for dead at 43.9, I'm now at 89.1. It's a matter of time."

Oh Donald, Donald, Donald … I hate to correct you, but John Sterling, not Kay, is the Yankees announcer who declares "an A-Bomb from A-Rod." That in addition to "Robby Cano, don'cha know," "The Melk Man delivers," "Positively Damon-ic" and several other entirely laughable home run calls. (I say laughable because I do laugh at them, and can't decide whether it's because they're actually funny or because Sterling is just fun to laugh at.) Can't let you pin that all on Kay, who's more likely to say something like "Track … wall … seeeeee ya! A looooong home run for Alex Rodriguez!"

I watch way too many Yankees games (though to be fair, I watch a lot of baseball games in general).

Speaking of which, rubbing it in much? (For the record, not really; Don sent this e-mail two days before the White Sox's meltdown.) Oh wait …

On Thursday, Donald writes: "I'm not going to say 'I told you so' about asking for trouble with the White Sox, because as of this message, the Yankees have yet to play the Phillies."

Wait, didn't you say it, though? Can't say Donald was wrong. Amazing that the White Sox get obliterated on Wednesday, and the very next day the Yankees get 8 1/3 innings of four-run baseball from their bullpen to extend their winning streak to nine. We'll see whether they're worn down as a result facing these challenging weekend matchups.

The Alfonso Soriano factor

Soriano's mastery of the Pittsburgh Pirates has been so pronounced over the past three seasons that he actually warrants his own section when his Cubs are scheduled to play their division rivals. From 2006 to 2008, Soriano batted .399 (65-for-163) with 11 doubles, 17 home runs, 33 RBIs, 37 runs scored and a 1.230 OPS in 36 games versus the Pirates, displaying the kind of dominance akin to Vladimir Guerrero's against the Rangers around the middle of this decade. Totaling those statistics, Soriano has amassed 210 BBC points against Pittsburgh in those three years; that's 5.8 per game.

Even better: Against the three Pirates starters he's scheduled to face this week, Paul Maholm (Monday), Ian Snell (Tuesday) and Zach Duke (Wednesday), Soriano is a combined 29-for-60 (.483 BA) with five doubles, eight home runs and 13 RBIs in his career.

Daily dips

Monday, May 25 -- Scott Hairston, CF, Padres (versus Doug Davis), 3.7 price tag: He's a renowned lefty killer, hitting .391 and four homers against them this season. Plus, he has two homers and a double in 10 career at-bats versus Davis.

Tuesday, May 26 -- Andre Ethier, RF, Dodgers (versus Aaron Cook), 4.9: Though Ethier has slipped into a bit of a funk with Manny Ramirez out of the lineup, I have to think a trip to Coors Field might cure what ails him. Besides the fact he's a .311 hitter with an .838 OPS in 25 career games at Coors, he's also 9-for-19 (.474 BA) with two doubles, two home runs and three walks in his career against Cook.

Wednesday, May 27 -- Ryan Braun, LF, Brewers (versus Todd Wellemeyer), 5.8: The only man who could keep Alfonso Soriano out of my lineup, Braun has never had a problem succeeding against Wellemeyer. He's 7-for-10 with one double and one home run in his career versus the right-hander, and has added three walks to boot.

Thursday, May 28 -- Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks (versus Derek Lowe), 3.9: He has more hits off Lowe than against any other pitcher (14), and for his career has batted .519 with five extra-base hits and a 1.351 OPS versus the sinkerballer. Drew's career OPS at home is also more than 100 points higher than on the road.

Friday, May 29 -- Jason Kubel, DH, Twins (versus James Shields), 3.8: He's a lifetime .583 hitter (7-for-12) with one double and one home run against Shields, and looking closer at those individual at-bats it seems like Kubel sprays line drives all over the field against the Rays' ace. He might see the right-hander better than a typical hitter does, so this is a matchup I'd exploit at a dirt-cheap price.

Saturday, May 30 -- Carlos Quentin, LF, White Sox (versus Brian Bannister), 4.5: He's 3-for-5 in his career against Bannister, with two of the hits being home runs. Also take a look at Jim Thome (DH, 4.2), a lifetime .389 hitter (7-for-18) with two doubles, three home runs and two walks versus the Royals right-hander.

Sunday, May 31 -- Scott Hairston, CF, Padres (versus Jorge De La Rosa), 3.7: I'm going back to the well with Hairston, seeing as he's 3-for-5 with two home runs and three walks in his career against De La Rosa. He also has a 1.027 OPS in 20 career games at Coors Field.

Tristan's Week 8 lineup

Total points: 2,069 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 99.8. Overall rank: 93rd.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 20th.

C -- Victor Martinez, Indians (TB-4, NYY-3), locked at 4.8 price tag, 5.9 market: Joe Mauer is the only catcher even remotely on my radar.
1B -- Mark Teixeira, Yankees (@TEX-3, @CLE-3), 5.0: Games at Rangers Ballpark? Yes, please. He's tearing things up now that he has A-Rod hitting behind him.
2B -- Ian Kinsler, Rangers (NYY-3, OAK-4), locked at 5.0, 5.6 market: Games at Rangers Ballpark? And seven of them at that? Yes, please.
3B -- David Wright, Mets (WAS-3, FLA-3), locked at 4.7, 5.3 market: He has averaged 5.8 BBC points per game since I slotted him into my lineup.
SS -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (@PHI-3, @NYM-3), locked at 5.0, 5.6 market: He has a .914 career OPS and now he gets three games at "Citizens Bandbox Park."
LF -- Ryan Braun, Brewers (STL-3, CIN-3), locked at 4.8, 5.8 market: I was tempted to slot Alfonso Soriano in for him, but the way he has been hitting …
CF -- B.J. Upton, Rays (@CLE-4, MIN-3), locked at 4.5, 4.7 market: Josh Hamilton is a similarly tempting choice, but until I know he's healthy, can't risk it.
RF -- Nick Markakis, Orioles (TOR-3, DET-4), locked at 5.0, 5.8 market: Seven home games for any Orioles slugger represents a fantasy-friendly schedule.
DH -- Nick Johnson, Nationals (@NYM-3, @PHI-3), locked at 4.2, 4.5 market: He has the most BBC points of any DH (146).
Pitching staff -- Angels (CHW-3, SEA-3), 6.7

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.